THERE ARE STILL OTHER ISSUES …. (Posted 4/26/20)
I think we should switch gears to that most fundamental of issues: the ongoing obstruction of democracy.
1) There are the biased news sources that seem to feel that the most important issue (even above how ever high the death count) is the disgracing of the current President. If you are shook up by the latest alleged statements of the Prez, then don’t be. He does not believe that individuals should be drinking or injecting themselves with clorox. For a more thorough discussion of this go to the following link:
2) There is always the Judge shopping. The recent headlines showed another ultimate win by Trump in the Supreme Court for his immigration policy. His Resistance opponents have never questioned that they would ultimately lose in the courts BUT it is still a way of obstructing the process. That is, to have his actions stay blocked for as long as possible in the lower courts.
3) And there was the criminalizing of political differences that led to the ultimate outcome of the Impeachment Saga. All three of these practices are an intended set of acts to subvert the democratic process. Thus, we will continue our shift away from virus coverage (not totally but some) and shift back to other basic issues.
One shift will be a full length article entitled “The Death of the Ballot Box.” This will be put into the Rogue’s Gallery section on the Welcome to the Library! page. A second shift will be a new set of articles inspired by the blunders of the coronavirus fight.
It will be a trilogy that I will entitle ” ‘Science’ vs. Thinking.” I will do an introductory piece to set these three articles up: Why you never let someone else do your thinking for you – ‘science’ notwithstanding. I think this will make a good new direction for the upcoming news blurbs and full length articles. There will still be the occasional virus update and Culture Watch segment but let’s see how this new direction works out.
BENCHMARK UPDATE ON THE VIRUS (Posted 4/26/20)
We are on top of the ‘flattened curve’. The active number of cases (when using a 5-day rolling average) goes a slight up, slight down, slight up, slight down … at slightly over 500,000 active cases. The daily death totals do the same slight up, slight down, etc. (when using a 5-day rolling average) of about 2150 daily deaths and a 7.5% death rate in real time numbers.
The problem with (finally) being ‘flattened’? ‘Science’ keeps flashing these two different curves at us. One is a steep, sharp but short curve that depicts the natural course of an epidemic. The second is the much bally-hooed ‘flattened’ curve. But, if you actually look at the two different curves geometrically, it is possible that they are still roughly equivalent in total deaths.
The natural steep curve (of an epidemic) is horrible but much shorter in length – while the ‘flattened’ curve (potentially) goes on and on and on … Thus far, we have been in this ‘flattened’ state for more than 2 weeks with no guarantee of it ending soon. Thus, we may wind up having just as many total deaths as the natural curve would have produced without all of the ‘flattening’ measures.
BENCHMARK UPDATE ON THE VIRUS (Posted 4/19/20)
The link above had a significant update yesterday. Check the new format for survival rates. (If you are under 40 w/ no underlying health problems there is only a 1 in 2500 chance of a fatality from the virus). You can see again how there has been no epidemic – but simply a failure to protect the vulnerable parts of the population. But for this, there would be no significant amount of deaths.
On a plus note, policy makers are at least making mention of the over 65/under 65 factor in their latest considerations. We will have to await the results to see if it is with a sufficient seriousness. That is, do we finally start getting these people out of the equation so that the overall death rates will start becoming lower and lower. At this moment, the benchmark rate (of the real time death rate for the populous as a whole) is running at 7.4%.
BENCHMARK UPDATE ON THE VIRUS (Posted 4/15/20)
Per a previous blurb, I will maintain a record when the virus hits certain benchmarks. As of today, the rate of cases is stabilizing but not the death rates. The real time death rate has made another 1-percentile uptick: from running at 6% to 7%.
WHAT WE THINK ABOUT THE RE-OPENING (Posted 4/14/20)
(Obviously) there comes a point where a matter is talked to death so … as to the virus: after today, we will just do a weekly update on the progress of the fight against the virus. We have already expressed our views on how we think it could have been done better. So … to our last opinion blurb on the coronavirus efforts:
PHASE ONE OF THE RE-OPENING
The reopening should be in two phases: the first phase should be to make things the way it should have been all along (by our opinion) without doing any of the closings at all. Namely, that all businesses should be opened. But with limitations:
All employees are to practice aggressive self protection – masks dampened in a slight protective solution, on-the-hour clean up breaks with hand sanitizers and a slight protective solution blend to re-dip the masks and/or rinse the facial areas. The employers are to configure their shops so that there is either a 6 foot social distance separation between employees and customers OR there is to be a partition of some kind as an alternative.
(This is another reason why I don’t like medical professionals actually running the show. If you haven’t noticed, virtually all cashiers have now put up physical barriers between themselves and the customer. It has always been obvious that the 6 foot rule could not apply but … guess what? They figured out the physical barrier scheme as an alternative – and did it all by themselves!)
A final self-protection is to simply be aware of who is working for you. (From our other writings: someone who is in the high risk pool should not be working for you – or shopping from you. They should be in the harder levels of protection we have talked about elsewhere.) But what the employer can do (minus we called a ‘triage’ concept being used by the government) is to observe which employees are having to do the most hazardously close-in work with others. If they are wearing a face mask, are under 40 years of age and have no underlying health problems the odds of them still winding up dead are virtually nil.
As to the customers: I again criticize the arrogance of the medical professionals. Most employers (who have been allowed to stay open) are already doing everything right:
1) Most of them limit the amount of people that are inside at any time (so that social distancing can be maintained) and
2) Most of them have all lines (on the outside) have space bars to keep the people in line from getting too close to each other. Also, they usually have the line to the cashier be similarly marked and for the same reasons. And this was all done without anyone ordering them to do it. But there should be one last change that has not been totally put into gear yet.
3) All customers should have to wear a face mask before being allowed in. Even this is something that the medical professionals bear the most blame for. Since Day One, they have insisted that masks are critical to their survival while, simultaneously, discouraging the average citizen from using one. This is one of the prime reasons that masks haven’t been getting used more frequently.
4) But then you have the air tight reason why there is probably not even one restaurant – anywhere in America – that should have ever been closed. It is because virtually every business in America already has the capability to act as a drive-in establishment as well as drive-through ones. In today’s world, virtually every person who will park in a parking lot will also have access to a cell phone and the phone number of any establishment that they might want to do business with. And, conversely, in today’s world virtually every business you might want to park in front of has the ability to take phone orders and payments. Finally, since the food can be delivered to the hood of a car (with the all of the windows rolled up) wouldn’t this act as an airtight social separation technique? Between this, drive-throughs, home delivery and inside social separation OR partitioning (either can work) there has never been the need to shut down a single business. At least not without allowing them to submit a Safe-but-Open plan.
So why has a single restaurant ever been ordered closed – without them at least being given a chance to submit a Safe-but-Open Plan? This must never happen again. There must be a new federal law giving every business owner the right to submit a Safe-but-Open Plan before they can ever be closed. And the new federal law must place the County Health Departments as the approving authorities for them – to prevent the types of political fowl ups that we keep seeing involved here.
A final matter is how to deal with the geographical hot spots and how to inhibit their spread to other geographical areas. In previous writings, it is has already been laid out how to do a strategic quarantine of an area in such a way that there is little economic damage. See “WHILE WE ARE STILL MINUS ENOUGH MREs … (POSTED 3/29/20)” for more details.
This would be Phase One of the re-opening. (Which, again, is what we have advocated all along but without doing the shutdown in the first place.) But before we go to Phase 2, just a couple of questions:
1) ‘Essential’ businesses appear to be operating safely with the extra safeguards that most of them have adopted. So why would opening a ‘nonessential’ business – to operate the same way – risk reigniting the virus?
2) Finally, where are the random testings – to know exactly how the breakdown of the virus is actually occurring. Gallup polls do this type of an exercise all of the time. They use just a small amount of sampling to get an accurate breakdown of opinions – and across a massively large area. All the random testing program would be is the same selection process – you just then do a virus test rather than an interview. Maybe we should put them in charge of the testing program rather than the medical ‘professionals’? We could have known weeks ago exactly how the virus is distributed amongst the population – and how the impact actually works out to with precision.
PHASE TWO OF THE RE-OPENING
Our views on Phase Two are simple: necessity will always be the best mother of invention. Allow each business enterprise to be able to reopen itself fully if they can meet just one condition:
They set up a regimen where they can vouch for everyone, who comes inside their business, that they are negative for the virus. This may not sound like much but it is enough just to put an economic incentive out there – for the business world itself to get involved in testing. And their are many ways they could do it. I will only list one for-instance scenario.
My one possible example: why couldn’t businesses pool some of their money for their own testing centers, i.e., a sign says “Do you want to go shopping? Get tested here.” or “Do you want to eat inside the lobby? Get tested here.” They then have their own arrangement so that if a person tests negative they get a certificate saying “Good to go” – followed by the date of the test on the slip of paper. This person is then free to shop anywhere and at any time with no restrictions – for at least the next 24 hours (or maybe more – depending on the science involved). Now that there are quick tests available why not quick testing centers that can enable you to be good to go? And especially if you give the business world itself a powerful economic incentive to start setting such centers up?
This, again, is just one for-instance. The details don’t really matter – nor do we have to keep being dictated to by politicians or by the medical bureaucrats. Once you put an economic incentive out there for the business world to get into the testing business then it will just somehow happen. There are the laws of physics, there is the law of gravity and there are the laws of human nature that necessity will always become the mother of invention. It needed even be worried about.
Just these two items (a business’ right to submit a Safe-but-Open Plan and an incentive to become a part of the testing industry) should totally do the trick until the national emergency is over. Less lives would have been lost (not more), it would end the emergency quicker and, in all probability, it should have been done without ever shutting down a single business for even one single second.
END OF SPECIALLY FEATURED ARTICLE
BACKING UP (AND REFINING) MY MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS (POSTED 4/12/20)
I have, finally, come up with the most definitive materials that I can find. The actual death rate, in real time, is even worse than the 3-4% mark. This number came from having the total number of cases, going back to Day 1, and then comparing it against the total number of deaths – and going back to Day 1.
As stated earlier, this number has been increasing – and in the way my last article stated. But the best measure is a real-time measure of what is happening right now. The link below will give you the two numbers you need: the daily (real-time) increase in cases and the daily (real-time) increase in deaths. Thus, you can now get the daily, real-time death rates from this below link:
I also have an updated link for what the real-time death rates are according to a person’s age. It is below:
The upshot is that the most pessimistic estimate of death rates (among lower risked people below age 65) is 3/4% – when you weigh in all the age groups and make the appropriate adjustments. Since the real-time death rate is running at 6% then we have at least an 8 fold increase in the death rates that may be totally unnecessary.
On the plus side, the cases (nationally) most likely are leveling off like we are being told. But at what type of an excessive price? In more deaths and economic devastation equally alike.
AN OBSERVATION THAT COMES WITH PREDICTIONS (POSTED 4/09/20)
THE OBSERVATION PART OF THIS BLURB
My immediate observation is one that I have predicted all along. It is about the failure to triage, i.e., use all of our resources to do a hard lock down on the vulnerable – while the rest of us come up with better ways to protect ourselves. What is occurring is the continuing rise in the death rate per number of confirmed cases. It was, once, at only 1%.
It rose to 2% as of a couple of weeks ago, jumped to 3% as of a few days ago and is picking up speed as it goes rapidly towards 4%. All of this jump comes from the coronavirus penetrating deeper and deeper into the older and more vulnerable categories of the general population.
So what was the reason the death rate started at only 1%? It is due to natural circumstances: the vulnerable are not, normally, as active as the younger population. Thus, the initial rounds of the infection start out much more likely to hit the younger – and not the more vulnerable – first.
Thus, if extra layers of protection had been set up hard enough, and early enough, we might well have had the overall death rate go down from the 1% to maybe no higher than a 1/2%. But it is instead climbing and will continue to do so until it may well hit the Italy levels of 10%+.
I hope not but it is within the realm of possibility. What do I blame for this? Again, my ‘blame game’ (such as it is) has been spelled out before:
1) The medical advice Trump has received. I have no idea how he can have the expertise level available to him that he has – and they have, apparently, no concept of what a triage is and when it is needed as your initial approach.
2) The astronomical emotional pressures that were exerted against him. This being done to sucker him into trying to save everyone all at once, and from all things all at once. Rather than concentrating on the most vulnerable first (and about death first) rather than getting into that Diffusion of Limited Resources that I have alluded to in other writings.
3) The third blame area is a benign one. And it is that everyone is a flawed human being and, at the same time, just a human being. Now, according to the New American Left and their flunky media allies, Donald Trump is the only person on the entire planet who is an exception to this. He is ahuman and totally in a caricature mode as walking evil. He, by there statements, does not give an s, an h, an i or a t about any other human being except for himself.
The problem with this analysis? How does such a person get emotionally blackmailed into a quixotic effort to save everyone all at once? And to let himself get put on the hook to be running around like a chicken with his head cut off with the responsibility to save everybody? In short, the third ‘blame’ area (if you want to call it that) is that he is not remotely like what his critics say he is as a person.
SO DOWN TO THE PREDICTIONS:
1) I repeat the one prediction I have already made: the death rate will continue to keep climbing until it gets closer and closer to the Italy rates of 10% (unless there is a radical change in policy to shift priorities).
2) The death rates among strictly young and healthy people will be less than 1/2% once all of the Monday morning quarterbacking is done.
3) With aggressive self protection, the low risk pool of people could have kept the economy open and still kept the infection rate down to around 1% of their part of the population. (If everyone had started earlier with the appropriate use of masks, maintaining as much distance as their work situations allowed, using whatever forewarned is forearmed knowledge they might have as smartly as possible, etc.) This will be found to be true after all of the Monday morning quarterbacking is done.
4) Thus, if the triage approach had been executed properly – and from the beginning – the number of deaths could have been held to around 10,000 out of the low risk pool. And, since there is no such thing as a totally perfect defense strategy, we might also have still lost, maybe, another 10,000 people from the high risk pool. But this is only 20,000 people while not shutting down the economy. This position will be seen as being justified once there is the post game time for analysis.
5) This set of predictions also makes the assumption that no one will pursue the “With enough MREs” strategy laid out in some of my earlier writings. Even minus this, however, a properly done triage approach would have still resulted in less death and destruction to the economy than what the President allowed himself to get manipulated into.
WHAT I WILL DO FROM HERE
Going forward, I will have a new Gallery set up on the Welcome To The Library Page. It will be called the Potpourri Gallery – and will be exactly that. It will deal with a wide variety of different issues and the first one will be “The Coronavirus – The Compilation.” This will simply take all of my Current News! blurbs on the virus and compile them into one set of posts – with my earliest writings starting first.
Secondly, while I am a full Trump supporter, I have a duty to keep an accurate record of this virus as it plays itself out. Done, in the hope that the right lessons can be learned later on. Therefore, I will post a new article as the virus reaches its’ coming percent of deaths marks: i.e. when it reaches 4%, I will post a short article reminding the reader of why the current strategy is wrong. I will similarly do this as it reaches the upcoming marks of 5%, 6%, 7% and etc. Done, again, just to maintain an accurate record for the future.
Pardon my bit of downbeat drama here but I will also post the occasional article for helpful suggestions too. With, of course, a desire to hear from you. Make some comments, post some articles, get involved!
A TWO-FER: AN AMY UPDATE AND A VIRUS UPDATE TOGETHER (POSTED 4/09/20)
A Senator Amy Klobuchar and family have, fortunately, made a full recovery from the coronavirus. It is everyone’s duty to be thankful for this. However, it is also everyone’s duty to ignore the image making that was involved (in the televised news segment) that puts out the Amiable Amy/Nice Everyday Girl From Next Door persona.
If you have not read it, read Komrade Klobuchar from the Rogues Gallery section in the “Welcome to the Library” page. There is absolutely nothing Amiable about this particular Senator in any way whatsoever. And a heads-up: it is not an article for the squeamish. The issue, that the article brings out is the question “Is it morally acceptable to do a frame-up (for rape) against someone – if it will stop them from opposing Roe vs. Wade?” We take the position that it is not.
THE CULTURE WATCH II – SPIRITUAL ‘VIRUSES’ (POSTED 4/05/20)
I will get back to the physical virus that is currently threatening us – and in the very next article that follows this one. I just feel that we still need to maintain our spiritual lives. And even if we should feel that our physical one is in danger.
What follows is a good news/bad news story. It is also something that demonstrates my concept of a spiritual ‘virus’ and how they tend to work. I am referring to the final episode of The Bachelor.
It featured a woman (Madison) who stood up for traditional values and, to give credit where credit is due, she was treated respectfully. However, there is the issue that she had to contend with. It is an issue that is not just bad news. But very, very bad news. For there is an issue with both The Bachelor and The Bachelorette that has to be made a point of.
It is that these shows are promoting what is, ultimately, a glorified gang bang. (Multiple people are given the same key to an overnight ‘fantasy’ suite). And, what’s more, is that this is the process being used to decide a final cut for … who you want as your monogamous partner(?) – and for the rest of your life(?).
Even apart from what is actually being normalized by these shows, isn’t it also rather contradictory? I am supposed to choose a life time monogamous relationship by going through a quick round of multiple sex partners – as a final cut type of a mechanism? Really?
This is why these types of things work almost like a virus. If one would just stop, for even a minute, and do the basic logic of the matter – then what I am saying is obviously true. And yet, like it is somehow invisible, the obvious abnormalities that are involved in this show have gone totally mainstream and without even being spoken out against. Consider:
Scenario #1: I am given a key to a room where I immediately have sexual relations with three different women – and one immediately after the other. Does anyone question that this is the proverbial gang bang?
Scenario #2: Let’s say it is not an immediate swing through all three of the different women. Let’s say that between 9 pm and 10 pm I have a sexual dalliance with a woman #1. On the same night, after she leaves, it is between 10 pm and 11pm that I have a physical relationship with the second woman and the third one is done similarly between 11 pm and 12 pm. But does this really make the basic situation (of Scenario #1) somehow different?
Scenario #3: I, again, go through all three women but do each one in turn on a different evening. So… in Scenario #1 I allow only, say, a minute between doing three different women and it is grotesquely amoral. In Scenario #2, I allowed one hour between the three different women so it becomes less immoral(?). And, since by Scenario #3 I am allowing 24 hours between each successive round, it is now in the realm of moral acceptability and is no longer a gang banging? (And what Bible verse does that come out of?)
And, speaking of the Bible, there is no Bible banging involved here either – as can easily be demonstrated. If, that is, one would stop for even a minute to do the basic logic here. Let’s say that I am in a room full of married men who are all complete atheists.
I then ask how many of them did a scheme similar to The Bachelor as a part of proposing to their then girlfriends. That is, that they got their then girl friends to agree to a ‘final cut’ arrangement involving two other women. And, this being done, as the prelude to their having gotten married.
I maintain that, no matter how big a room full of atheists we might be talking about, that there would not be a single instance of this happening. Even in a room full of total atheists. Moreover, you could probably question each one of them and find out that 1) not only have they never done such a thing but that 2) atheists not withstanding, even the thought of doing such a thing has never even occurred to any of them in their entire lives. And this would be in a room full of atheists.
Yet, we have all just spent several seasons (of watching exactly this on TV) and right before God and the whole world all looking on. And it is normalized and mainstreamed and is never even spoken out against. Very weird when you think about it. And that is just how these spiritual ‘viruses’ work – in a way that is very weird.
AN UTTER LACK OF LEADERSHIP – BUT NOT BY THE PRESIDENT (POSTED 4/05/20)
I have listed a number of problems about the current Corona Virus strategy. But I have not actually gotten to that most central problem. It is not the Prez – but the fact that no one else is showing any leadership. And, thereby, making it so that everything revolves around one human being in a country with 330 million people at risk.
And the two items of this that I will focus on are the two items at the bottom of the totem pole – not the ones at the top. I am referring to the medical professionals out in the country (not the ones in DC that get the TV coverage) – and to us common folk as the second item of consideration.
So … what am I the most annoyed about with the medical profession out in the country? It is that the national microphone has been hijacked by the panic mongers. Thus, the medical professionals need to get off of their butts, retake the microphone and get an appropriate ‘bedside’ manner prevailing again in the country.
It is not possible, and will never be possible, when there is a sudden mass medical emergency situation, to have an airtight set of supply lines. And to also have flawless logistics to all situations and in all places for all of a countrys’ 330 million people. I am sick of listening to all of this c_ _ _ that unless 1) a Donald John Trump gets every supply line working continuously airtight and 2) gets every logistics operation to go like clockwork then we will all freaking die. These are the type of words that can kill and I will use an example to demonstrate this.
A first aid instructor once told me the following example: You see an unconscious injury victim and say “Well, hell, it looks bad and like he ain’t going to make her.” His criticism? It was that hearing is the last thing to go out before someone dies. Thus, your saying “it looks bad and like he ain’t going to make her” may be just the thing that causes the accident victim to not make her.
Now, with this in mind, how does the following talk sound (as far as being good bedside manners): “AAAAAAAA!!! Unless a Donald John Trump makes everything come together perfectly we’re all going to freaking die!!! AAAAAAAA!!!” I realize that the medical profession has enough on its’ plate already. Still, one of the first things you always have to do is start out with a “Stay Calm!” – and to get the microphone away from idiots like the ones that are currently wielding it. Before, that is, they get even more people killed than are getting killed already.
But how can the medical profession be more involved in doing this? The medical profession can do a lot (that they are currently not doing). They can remind people that the first thing that is ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS done, in a sudden mass medical emergency, is to setup a triage station.
This involves field medicine, improvising, thinking out of the box – and doing so without any ironclad guarantee that you will always have the best of equipment, and all fully stocked and at all times. Doctors are right to keep pressing for all of the equipment and supplies that they can get. But they do still know how to soldier on and keeping doing the medical care that the people need.
Also, we have some plausible Hail Mary types of medications (until something better comes along). It is possible to improvise with PPE equipment while you are stretched out betwixt and between. Further, there is such a thing as hand ventilating if one is minus a mechanical ventilator (I even looked that up. It is, in fact, true).
Thus, what the medical professionals need to do – forcefully and on a regular basis – is to state that, while they will keep pressing for more and better equipment, that they can and will still be able to provide you with your medical care come what may. And though doctors work on physical bodies as their main lane, they are all also aware of the intangible elements also. Specifically, that hope keeps people alive while fear kills.
The other main grievance I have with the medical profession at large is their cursory way of getting people to do self protection. Sure, social distancing, wash your hands and don’t touch your face are all good but there is much more that can be done for self protection. And where, possibly, a person can decisively save themselves rather waiting for someone else to save them.
And here is where I will transition the discussion to us the common people. There are leadership issues involved here also. So … how good has your leadership been over your own life? At the end of the day we are all in a position of leadership even if it just involves your own leadership over your own life. So how would you rate yourself?
To use the last paragraph about the medical profession: what about yourself as your own protector? I realize there is plenty of blame to go around but, at the end of the day, don’t we all ultimately wind up as the final line in our own defense system?
So, here are the basics of an (almost) airtight self protection system against viruses. It revolves around a well known but rarely discussed fact. Specifically, there that there is one way in which you will always be stronger than any virus. And it revolves around bleach.
Just a combination of 4 tsps of bleach per 4 cups of water is enough to kill any virus while not harming you. There is your one edge that you can use to protect yourself the best. So… what is the full kit then for a self protection regimen? It is:
1) Hand sanitizer
2) A basin of bleach blend – a 1 tsp per one cup of water mixture
3) a self made face mask and
4) cotton balls
Before leaving your house you do the following:
1) use the hand sanitizer to clean off your hands
2) you take the immersed mask and ring it out to get rid of the bleach. The bleach simply sanitizes the mask. You can use the dip to rinse your face (eyes closed). And be sure to dry off well afterwards. This will kill all of the viruses on your facial area.
3) You keep one end of the two cotton balls dry and then dip the other ends into the bleach blend. You put the cotton balls into your nasal cavity – bleached side out to block the pathogens. Also, so that you don’t bleach fume yourself.
4) Place the face mask over your face and you should be good to go.
If, during your outside activities, you can stop virus contact with your mouth and nose you will almost certainly keep yourself safe. Provided, you follow your Returning Home procedures.
After you return home, use the hand sanitizer to clean your hands. Re-immerse your protective gear back into the bleach blend, rinse and dry your face. You have now cleaned yourself off and set up your protective gear for its’ next usage.
But here, in my opinion, are the most important leadership issues vis-a-vis yourself. Who do you ultimately pray to to give you this day your daily bread? To God or to the government? Do you pray to the Lord to be your ultimate deliverer from evil or to Barrack Obama or Donald Trump?
Yes, we do what ever we sanely can to limit risks. But for those of us in the low risk pool, we have the obligation to self protect so that the limited resources go mostly to those in the high risk end. Also, we still have an obligation to keep the country going so that these resources are not depleted. Finally, at some point, aren’t all of our lives still ultimately in God’s hands? Where do you stand on these types of leadership issues in regards to your own life?
THE FIASCO WIDENS … (POSTED 3/31/20)
What makes this all a fiasco is that various governors and mayors keep calling for more and more “stay at home” or “shelter in place” orders – when there are no such things available. If a prepared national shut down had been set up you would have the following:
1) A situation where the only people not in shutdown would be:
- a) the national guardsman who would mobilize the lockdown
- b) law enforcement personnel and
- c) a skeleton crew of utilities workers to make sure that the utilities would stay up and running – for the locked down population.
2) From the above: only about 5% of the people in the area would remain in a somewhat exposed state (the people mentioned above) while
3) The other 95% of the people in the area would remain under full lockdown and have no meaningful exposure until the virus could be starved out and die accordingly
But … because they keep insisting on ordering more people to, somehow, lock themselves down – and to be left to their own devices on how to somehow accomplish such a feat – you have the following:
1) There have to be “essential businesses” so they can fend for themselves at getting their own provisions. Thus, about 50 to 60 percent of the population still has to show up for the daily shifts, interact with strangers and etc. and still be subjected to a full exposure to the virus. And this includes some of the high risk pool of people who might work at one of these ‘essential’ businesses. Has anyone thought to check if these businesses might employ 65 and older people – exactly the ones you don’t want exposed?
2) The other 30 to 40 percent of the population still has to keep bobbing in and out of social contacts (at the essential businesses to maintain their provisions). And, thus, they will still retain at least some exposure to the virus rather than having none and
3) It is out of this half baked arrangement that we are supposed to shut down an entire society well enough to kill off a virus with the level of contagiousness that this one has?
Thus, I will stick with the points made from my previous virus updates. The entire focus should have been a triage operation where the limited resources were used to shelter the vulnerable more thoroughly – and let there be a short surge in people getting sick – but with a lesser amount of people actually dying.
And once, as has been noted before, if you got more effective measures mobilized, you could do the isolation campaign effectively – under the conditions that would prevail at the beginning of this blurb. Thus, you might even wind up, over the long term, with even less illnesses as well as deaths.
But, at the present, all we are getting is more and more declarations of half-baked measures at a more and more astronomical cost. The President has been taken advantage of:
1) he received lousy advice
2) he received enormous emotional pressures to attempt to save everyone all at once (in a way that would have to prove utterly chaotic) and
3) he is now on the hook for an endless number of multi-trillion dollar bailouts – to relieve the problems that other people are free to keep causing (with more and more of these half-baked measures.)
I got it wrong in my previous statement; the President has not been taken advantage of. He has been totally suckered.
WHILE WE ARE STILL MINUS ENOUGH MREs … (POSTED 3/29/20)
A quick note: MREs stands for Meals Ready to Eat and are designed (primarily) for our military.
So … for the moment (at least) we are minus our MRE stockpile. And, unfortunately, the Prez is being pressured to do a lot of the wrong things and … is not getting the type of advice he needs to do the right ones. Look back, for example, at my 3/05/20 post on the coronavirus.
It mentioned the 3,142 most important government agencies that would have to be at the center of the fight. It was my first serious blurb on the virus and is, still, the most relevant. For now we know that 50% of all the virus transmission has come out of just 10 counties in America.
If the CDC had made the Countrys’ County Health Departments their main focus we might well have stopped the problems. Now, granted, we can’t turn back the clock. So, I will introduce Going-Forward-Solution #1: a strategic quarantine of these 10 counties.
Going-Forward-Solution #1): The first of the new ways forward (to reopen the country): you can not cross any county line (in either direction) EXCEPT under the following circumstances:
- a) You are hauling commercial cargo AND you do not roll down your window or get out of your vehicle – except at truck stops along the way if you are a long haul trucker.
- b) Now that we have a more enhanced testing ability: you may go back to using public transportation systems to go past county lines. IF you are tested first before getting on a plane, train or sailing vessel. AND you are tested after exiting a plane, train or sailing vessel on your return to your point of origin.
These two sets of restrictions will do little economic damages and should have been instituted at the County levels from the earliest times of the outbreak. It may well be a good idea to make this a national set of restrictions. At a minimum, they must be a part of a strategic quarantine for the Top Ten – the counties that have done 1/2 of all the transmissions of the disease for the whole country.
Going-Forward-Solution #2) STOP even trying to protect the entire country: it is not possible because we did not (and still do not) have the necessary preparations in place. We are doing the #1 No-No of all times: THE DIFFUSION OF LIMITED RESOURCES or to use a medical term: we are in a triage situation while still trying to help everyone. MEDICAL RULE NUMBER ONE: YOU DO NOT DO THAT!
There are two categories of people to deal with: those with a high probability of death from the virus vs. those who have only a high probability of getting sick (but not dying). We must overhaul the entire strategy: double down hard on only those most vulnerable to death. In short, we must shift our approach so that we will allow a lot more people to get sick while insuring that a lot less people will actually die.
And, in a sort of grim way, getting sick is good if you are not susceptible to actually dying. The more the population becomes this way the faster the virus will burn itself out. But, what about category two: those less vulnerable to dying? Aren’t there some possible protections available?
- a) We look at the facts as laid out above: we rely on their own natural protection to save them from actually dying.
- b) Re-opening does not necessarily have to re-open a mass infection anyway. By strategic quarantines of certain areas, most of the country may not suffer at all. Plus, people are much smarter now about how not to get sick. Those of us in Category #2 can add to our natural protection, even after going back to a relative ‘normal’, just by relying on forewarned is forearmed.
- c) The ‘smarter’ classes need to allow us to both walk and chew bubble gum at the same time. It is possible to do both controlled studies on hopeful therapies and cures – while still allowing their mass use so long as they don’t violate the Do No Harm rule. None of the following items has any significant chance of doing harm while still, maybe, doing good:
- i) Hydroxyl Choroquine (and other similar antiviral/anti-inflammatory medicines) that are still proven safe while MAYBE also being effective for an off label use.
- ii) Plasma therapies using existing antibodies from people who have recovered and, possibly controversial,
iii) Immunotherapy. People may well flinch at getting oneself deliberately infected but that is what a large number of successful vaccines ultimately do: a weakened strain is used to ‘infect’ you. But because of it’s weakened nature you get the best of both possible worlds. You get to have your antibodies get produced without having to actually get sick. Also, with our modern scientific abilities to open up microscopic entities and manipulate them it might not be that difficult to produce this situation: using a less harmless strain of a virus to get antibodies produced against a more harmful one.
The main point though: there are some things that are a medical judgment. However, there are other things that are, ultimately, a value judgment – and even if it might have medical ramifications. The philosophy of “What the hell do you have to lose?” is a value judgment. And there is nothing about a doctor that gives him a superiority at value judgments.
They have superior medical judgments but they do not have superior value judgments. Whipping an epidemic involves both types of judgments. So don’t assume that every doctor is smarter than you are, and at every single thing so that you must do only what they tell you to do – rather than to think for yourself also.
Going-Forward-Solution #3) We can still start the mobilizations needed for the recommendations of the next blurb below, “With Enough MREs” that was posted on 3/19/2020. Eventually, we would start with the #1 worst of the worst 10 counties for a campaign of rolling isolations. After the first of the 10 is set up well enough (and you have enough mobilization in place) you might then start on numbers 2 thru 10 – without, necessarily, having to wait for the full three weeks for #1 to finish its’ full course.
Sorry if this ‘quickie’ blurb has, actually, been rather lengthy. So … if you have not read the 3/19/20 blurb below read it now so you will understand what an MRE-based isolation campaign refers to. Also, I will try to do more regular (and shorter?) blurbs on this subject as events develop. Stay safe and good bye for now!
WITH ENOUGH MREs … (POSTED 3/19/20)
Our situation (with the coronavirus) seems complicated but first a background story. In my last managers job: I wound up butting heads over a basic philosophical difference. The company had a new high level management that was utterly stuck on themselves – and on how much smarter they were than every other person on the planet.
(Yes, elitist snobbery is alive and well in the corporate world too. Sadly, this is also what they were basing their new direction on to a, presumably, more superior way. Spoiler alert: it didn’t happen like that).
My position was diametrically the opposite: do things in such a dumbed down, mega-simplified format that it would NOT be possible for it to NOT work. And … once you have something that is not possible for it to not work – then what are the odds that it WILL work? Pretty good, I would think.
This is also the right approach, for not just the current epidemic, but for every other possible one as well. For what is the one and only airtight way to beat every possible epidemic? Starting with the simple (and the theoretical) for now: keep everyone isolated from each other until the disease runs its’ course. In this way, no current sufferer will ever be able to pass it on to another person. Thus, once it has run its’ course, the epidemic expires with it.
There are nuances here but, for now, I present the central building block of the air tight epidemic defense: 21 billion MREs at the expense of only 63 billion dollars. This would create enough MREs, to shelter-in-place, the entire U.S. population for the full run of the current disease (and most other diseases also). Now the nuances:
You would not have to do the entire country all at once. And, in all probability, you might never need to do the whole country at all. There would need to be rolling isolation campaigns.
They would be preceded by the national guard getting the MREs distributed first, then the isolation/shutdown next. Also, for the next epidemic, we could set up staging areas to help the distribution process. (In another news blurb, posted on 3/05/20, I pointed out that there are 687 federal courthouses spread throughout the country.)
Now, yes, you would also have to be aware that once you lift the local shutdown – and then reopen the area – there is the threat of people from other areas coming in. And these people may not have had their own areas isolated yet. But competent epidemiologists can walk one through the nuances – while these Current News! items are only meant to be short blurbs.
The central point is that you can readily defeat any and all possible epidemics if you have a sufficient amount of MREs. And that this is a much cheaper tactic and a much thorougher one also – though there are some economic nuances. Example: a local (but universalized) isolation campaign does not have to damage the economy that much. For, while there will be no income coming in, there will also be fewer outlays as well.
Are you a worker? You have no income for the 3 weeks but you can also have no outlays as well. If the epidemics’ economics plan just focuses on rent/mortagages and utilities – for a temporary cover period – then you won’t need to make any money during those three weeks. And the MREs will keep you fed for your food.
Are you a business owner? You also have no income during the 3 weeks but you also have fewer outlays – you don’t have to pay wages. Like the workers, if the epidemics’ economics plan just focuses on rent/mortgages and utilities – for a temporary cover period – then you won’t need to make any money during those three weeks.
Again, we can talk nuances. But the general economic concept is that you have the local economy simply become dormant for the short interlude. Thus, I feel it can all be simplified by just going back to the title of this blurb. If you will just give me enough MREs then I can save the world!
CULTURE WATCH I – LET US CHOOSE OUR OWN AMERICAN IDOLS, PLEASE? (POSTED 3/17/20)
It can be challenging: carrying a regular column about the popular culture – and relating it to our views on traditional living. Maybe a ground rule will help where we make an important differentiation. We are NOT at odds with individuals who happen to practice any type of ‘alternative’ lifestyles. But we ARE (severely) at odds with the people who are trying to orchestrate these ‘alternative’ lifestyles onto all the rest of us. This latest ‘orchestration’ effort involves a popular program that I have always liked: The American Idol.
But first: there is a back story here. The American Idol show used to have it exactly right. It involved nothing, either pro or con, in regards to any lifestyle issues (or any other issues for that matter either). There was nothing either pro or anti abortion, pro or anti gay liberation or very much of any pro or anti at any significant issue. And this is what I believe in for the entertainment industry: it is their job to do “Let me entertain you” rather “Let me tell you (and your children) how they should think”. I favor entertainment just doing entertaining and staying out of the “tell you how to think” business.
However … it turned out that the demographics of the American Idol show usually resulted in a straight/somewhat religious/All-American Boy or Girl type often being the winner. There was no one pushing anything one way or the other – it merely worked out this way on a somewhat regular basis. So … at some point, this became unacceptable to the Cultural Elite/Cultural Diversity types. Beginning at two seasons back from the present one, they pressured the shows’ producers into going down their Culturally Diverse rabbit hole with them.
Obviously, the first thing that will happen is that one of the contestants will be set up to act as the official Gay Liberation Advocate for the season. Next, other types of performers were given the axe, not for a failure to perform, but for a failure to make a culturally diverse outcome. Up until then, every season had always had a fair mix of everything. And, for that matter, Clay Akins and Adam Lambert turned out to practice homosexual lifestyles – but it was strictly a private matter and was not an in-your-face advocacy effort on behalf of “THE CAUSE”.
But not anymore. The new Culturally Diverse look began with a lesbian named Destiny for the second season back. Next, it was a Jeremiah Lloyd Harmon for last season – where his every single appearance revolved (exhaustively and one-dimensionally) around his homosexual lifestyle rather just having him perform.
The shows’ judges were then pressured to boost these candidates as much as possible. And (maybe) were even pressured to reserve a ‘save’ for Harmon in the last season. And what about this season? When this season came around I was waiting to see if this was, indeed, a pattern – and it is. The most recent American Idol presentation just introduced the new Gay Liberation Advocate to be this season’s candidate for this task.
But the Lord still controls all (and we still have some controlling ability also) so not to worry. Modern technology has the ability to do an Enhanced Block – one where you don’t have to block an entire show but merely the parts of it that go into the “tell you how to think” mode – while retaining the rest of the show to watch. It is not out yet but we still have what I would call a Manual Blocker.
I always record my shows before watching them. I then use my “Fast Forward” button as my manual blocker – I just go through the “tell you how to think” parts without watching them. And for that reason – I just need some down time for diversion not to be told how to think.
Now, I have no ill will against Destiny, Harmon or even the latest chosen delegate for the Gay Lobby. My “ill will” (such as it) is just against being told how to think by the entertainment industry. That is not their calling – and is the proper preserve for parents and parenting. Their “assistance” is not needed. What say you?
A post-season update. It was the usual push and shove match where the producers, apparently, met some resistance. The judges allowed the Cultural Diversity cut to happen: only one of the All American Country Girl singers was allowed to go forward. But they refused to do it themselves – they forced another week to go by and had the country make the cut with a popular vote.
They did the pro forma cut of the Kathy Lee Gifford-ish type of Gospel Girl singer that used to be allowed to go forward. But gave no explanation for it. Luke Bryan just got the maneuver out of the way as fast as possible – and with an obvious displeasure involved in his having to do so. But then there was the push back.
The Designated Gay Advocate was ultimately cut, by the judges, rather than being allowed to go forward. And the show ended with a type of Revenge of Kathy Lee – the winner of the contest was, ultimately, a strong Gospel Girl type in her own right. And there was a twist: the ignominously cut Gospel Girl sang a Lauren Dagel song and then got the boot. But then Lauren Dagel was then brought back, by the winner, to perform a song with her!
However … the pressure lobbies may ultimately have prevailed through their rule-or-ruin tactics. The show, after the back and forth resistance, was then (chronically) truncated into nothingness. I, personally, got little entertainment value from the last couple of weeks – where the show was given a bum’s rush off of the air in as fast a way as possible. But that is to be expected.
Don’t be confused about what is happening around you. It is not the type of topic we will discuss in this column very much but the lootings and the lockdowns are more of the same. It has nothing to do with your health or legitimate protest. It is a case in point like the Culture Wars – it is either rule or ruin. If they can’t run the country they will gladly ruin it in the hopes of, somehow, inheriting what’s left over out of the ashes.
MY LATEST CONSPIRACY THEORY (POSTED 3/09/20)
Welcome to my latest conspiracy theory – which may (or may not) be true. I am just saying be prepared for anything. I will start by articulating things that everyone else is afraid to say.
One is that Joe Biden is the real deal mentally gone – from an age related ailment. I base this on my personal dealings I have had with people who have Alzheimer’s Dementia and other similar ailments. The way that they will carry a conversation, and act, is so glaringly similar to Biden’s problems – that I sincerely believe him to be clinically impaired. He does not have the physical capacity to serve as President.
So … you have one candidate who is worse from being totally unable to function in Joe Biden. Then you have a candidate who would be better from being totally unable to function in a Bernard Sanders. His views and outlooks are so bad, as a functioning person, that we would be better off for him to not function at all – than to be the way he currently is.
Thus, you have the first part of the ‘conspiracy’. Even though they are aware of Biden’s problems, they may still be using him simply to stop Sanders. But then what do they do about Biden?
So what will the Dems, ultimately, do? This is why I say: be prepared for anything. I am (nearly) 100% certain that we have not heard the last from Mayor Pete and ‘Amiable’ Amy Klobuchar. At least one of the two of them is likely to be in a VP spot – and here is the second conspiracy part. Were the Dems successful at winning in 2020, then one of the two of them may wind up actually serving as Prez come election day – rather than Joe Biden.
There are ways for this outcome to happen (and I am not suggesting murder) so don’t totally discount it. I have laid out (in my writing “The Confused Generation” in the DeNova Gallery) why Mayor Pete is not an appropriate candidate for higher office. I also have a full length article in the works on why ‘Amiable’ – or, actually, (non) Amiable Amy is also not fit for higher office. It will be out shortly as an article in the Rogue’s Gallery section in our “Welcome to the Library” Page.
But for now, just be prepared for anything.
GOING VIRAL – AND IN A SERIOUS MANNER (POSTED 3/05/20)
I come from the state with the worst outbreak (in fatalities), Washington State. There will certainly be no humor or satire today. The blurb will still be quick but I will attempt as much analysis value as possible in a short time. To begin:
The Washington State outbreak highlights the most basic – and least talked about – aspect of fighting a national epidemic. It is that there are 3,142 primary government agencies that will have to lead the fight (and none of them have anything to do with Donald Trump). I refer to the fact that America has 3,142 counties in it – and each county is tasked its own crack team for public health issues.
This is the spot where the fight will be won or lost. Referring back to Washington State to illustrate the point: The disease epicenter of our state, at the present time, is one county. Thus, there is one county in America that is currently taking the main brunt of the disease (in fatalities) for the whole country. And all from a very tragic but localized situation.
Since these blurbs are meant to be short, I will just throw out one shortcoming in our current crisis infrastructure. We have around 687 federal courthouses, spread around the country, that could serve as staging areas against a national epidemic or crisis. Their main purpose would, actually, be small but necessary.
They would be there as a way to deal with the fact that we would need to have all 3,142 counties working at full capacity – and that the worst starting problem (in any crisis) will always be logistics. Hopefully, the 687 staging areas (spread all throughout the country) will help with the logistics of dealing with the 3,142 county governments – also spread all throughout the country. May the Lord watch over us.
NOT FAR ENOUGH (POSTED 2/24/20)
As to the recent pardons and commutations: if you are familiar with my writings you know how I feel about ‘process’ crimes. This is where a fed investigation finds no wrong doing. However, they take the way that you responded to their efforts to put you in jail. Then, if they find your response to have been inappropriate they prosecute you for it – so that they can still put you in jail for that!
And, again, excuse me for my own prior naivete on this matter. I remember someone named Deaver (back in the 80’s) – he did some bad optics/conflict of interest behavior and was investigated by a special counsel. And it was one of the first instances of this phenomena: he was cleared of a crime on the matter but still prosecuted for his behavior in how he responded to their investigation.
I clearly recall not liking what I was seeing. But I wasn’t sufficiently on guard about this type of conduct (by fed prosecutors) that was being done at that time. Since then, as this has gone on and on and over and over, I am sufficiently on guard now.
My belief is that Trump should pardon everyone ever convicted of a ‘process’ crime – period – and going all the way back to Deaver. This would also include the controversial Mr. Stone but so what. Then he should give a long overdue executive order: finish your investigation and if there was no crime involved then do like every other law enforcement body does. Namely: just shut up, drop your prosecution and GO AWAY.
I STAND BY MY STATEMENTS ON SONDLAND (POSTED 2/22/20)
In one of my writings, I compared the visousness of Trump’s adversaries (when Sondland was sticking with the Prez) compared to Trump’s supposed nastiness. Well, according to the Flunky media, I am now proven wrong by Trump’s ‘retaliation’ against him – by removing him from his post. I disagree.
Once someone has testified against you, he can no longer have credibility as still being your advocate. Sondland knew that he would have to be leaving and there is nothing to really fuss about. But, again, the comparison: now that he turned against Trump, has Trump: 1) boycotted his hotel chain (like the Resistance did) 2) drummed up law suits against him (like the others did) and 3) talked about prosecutions for non relevant matters? (like the others did).
No way. It’s a fake comparison; as unfortunate as losing his diplomatic post was it was no where near a Resistance-level assault.
NASTY NANCY (POSTED 2/22/20)
Why does she keep doing that? Why does she always follow a statement about his impeachment – and every time – with a “and he is impeached FOREVER!” and “He can NEVER get rid of it!” Well, first we will be fair and balanced. Many listeners have the clear impression that they also heard her say something to the effect of “Ne-ahahaha, Ne-ahahaha …” during these statements.
However, our panel of experts have exhaustively examined all of her utterances and, to be fair, there are no (expressly stated) “Ne-ahahaha”s”. Our panelists came to the conclusion that the mishearing of what she said, and by so many people, was due to a psychological phenomenon called “Listener’s Perception”. But we need to get back to the original question (and in a fair and balanced manner) So why, again, does she keep doing that?
She has explained why and we take her at her word: the reason she keeps doing that is because she does NOT (repeat does NOT) dislike the President. She has also commented on how and why she does NOT dislike the Prez before and we will, again, take her at her word: it is because she is such a staunch Catholic.
AND IT WAS SHEER HORROR!!! (TRUMP VENTS) (POSTED 2/22/20)
The day after the impeachment went down in flames, the Prez was supposed to have delivered a prepared speech. Instead, he just did a celebration get-together with his allies – and did do some venting. Though 1) no one was subjected to a summary death penalty nor 2) were there any further steps taken (that we are aware of) in his plans to set up a military dictatorship (using Ukrainian armed forces) it was still regarded, predictably, as another dangerous act by an out of control President.
I do not agree. But I do give him one piece of advisement. While I hope that Nasty Nancy will forgive me someday (for my ratting her out on what her current chess move is) it is this: she is doing gratuitously disrepectful acts during State of the Union addresses, her “and he is impeached FOREVER” statements and et al for a simple tactical reason.
It is all a calculated attempt to get him to react inappropriately and be his own worst enemy. Or to at least to be unpresidential. Thus, getting him to self defeat his own campaign – in case they can’t defeat him with theirs.
Thus, I simply advise him not to take the bait. It is all simply an effort aimed at goading him into defeating himself in the next election. And I think what I will advise next is good general advice that can apply to a lot of situations.
For, in a way, I do believe that he should do a crackdown on Pelosi – and one that will fry her keister in a way that she will never forget. And, in a way, that he should come down harder on all of his adversaries than he has ever done before. But how? Simple, by ignoring the living hell out of them!
Don’t take the bait, next time just stick with the scripted speech.